I. Price Aspect:
According to the SMM website, the average of low-end prices for manganese sulphate in 2024 is 5,740.41 yuan/mt, while the average of high-end prices is 6,037.4 yuan/mt.
In Q1 2024: High-purity manganese sulphate producers maintained normal production, with overall market supply being relatively sufficient and social inventory levels remaining high. Most ternary cathode precursor enterprises had self-supply capabilities, resulting in lackluster procurement demand. Under the condition of oversupply, the spot price of high-purity manganese sulphate remained at a low level.
In Q2 2024: With manganese ore prices continuing to rise, the cost of high-purity manganese sulphate received stronger support. Additionally, some enterprises planned to suspend production for maintenance, leading to a reduction in market supply. Against the backdrop of existing demand, customers gradually accepted the price increase intentions of manganese salt producers, driving the spot price of high-purity manganese sulphate upward.
In Q3 2024: Costs on the cost side gradually stabilized, and the cost support for high-purity manganese sulphate remained strong. Market activity was robust, with downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises primarily fulfilling long-term contracts. Spot prices were basically stable at around 6,500 yuan/mt.
In Q4 2024: Declining raw material prices weakened cost support. Coupled with sluggish downstream market demand and sparse new orders, most high-purity manganese sulphate producers were forced to cut production or suspend operations, leading to a decline in operating rates. To address the high cost pressure caused by low operating rates, these enterprises attempted to raise prices. However, as some ternary cathode precursor enterprises had self-supply systems, their demand for high-purity manganese sulphate also decreased. Amid weak demand, high-purity manganese sulphate producers lacked the motivation to maintain prices, resulting in a continuous decline in spot prices.
II. Supply and Demand Aspect:
According to SMM data, China's total production of high-purity manganese sulphate in 2024 is approximately 52,000 mt (metal content), down 33% YoY compared to 2023. The significant reduction in overall production in 2024 was mainly due to severe overcapacity in high-purity manganese sulphate in earlier periods, which made enterprises more conservative in production, unwilling to hold excessive inventory, and generally adopting production cuts and destocking strategies. The primary downstream demand for manganese sulphate is concentrated in the ternary cathode precursor sector. However, in 2024, as downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises generally established relatively complete self-supply systems, demand for high-purity manganese sulphate declined. The entire market largely relied on the execution of long-term contracts, showing a relatively weak supply and demand situation.
III. Outlook for 2025:
By 2025, the production plans of ternary cathode precursor enterprises are expected to continue expanding, ensuring a certain level of demand for manganese sulphate. However, due to unresolved overcapacity issues from earlier periods, high-purity manganese sulphate producers may adopt more flexible production adjustments under inventory pressure, increasing or decreasing production based on demand changes. As for spot prices, manganese ore prices are expected to decline slightly in 2025, potentially weakening long-term cost support. Furthermore, manganese sulphate smelters are likely to arrange production flexibly based on demand. Therefore, after destocking, spot prices are expected to fluctuate within a reasonable profit range.
